Thursday, November 15, 2012

World Equity Markets

Right now I'm bearish on the U.S. equity markets over the next 1 to 3 years. With escalating commodity prices, inflation, rising bond yields, unfavorable interest rates and likely Fed tightening I think the US markets and economy will flat-line or grow slightly. Of course lower stock prices mean better bargains and as investors flee short-term a wise investor buys long-term. Every bull market has its bear. The more overextended the bull is the more devasting the fall. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I believe Americans are slightly underexposed to foreign markets. Is it a coincidence that the majority of their investments are in the country that gains from this allocation? All the huge long-term future growth is in emerging markets like India,China,Russia,Latin America and parts of Asia. Furthermore, the U.S. equity markets have returned around 7% this year compared to almost double that in other countries. The U.S. GDP is growing at around 3%. China's GDP is growing at 12-13%. Bursting of a bubble in China will present great long-term buying opportunities. This closed end fund Claymore/BNY BRIC (EEB) has no U.S. holdings and is allocated heavily in Brazil 47% of assets, Hong Kong 26%,India 13, China 7, Russia 5%. This all India vehicle isn't an etf but a debt security that tracks the Indian index. iPath MSCI India Index ETN NYSE:INP. It is not actively managed and is one of the best vehicles to invest in India. A guy in India just recommended to me ICICI Bank and a construction company DLF. To bad DLF isn't an ADR.

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