Friday, September 30, 2022

S&P 500 Analysis

The yellow lines are rough support areas. The red trend line is the downtrend we are in and I think we very well may hit that on this leg down without a bear flag. That is how low we can go short term. SPY is way ahead of IWM. IWM isn't breaking down like this. I bought some IWM puts Friday.

Charts! And More Charts!

Welcome to my blog. Some of you may have come from 2+2 Forum. I am going to try to post more charts up going forward. I may even do a video blog or two on things I see and setups or trade recaps. It helps me too to analyze more charts. Here is a recent trade I made in Royal Carribean RCL. I was running nightly screens or "scans" as I call them for charts that haven't had a serious downtrend yet. I stumbled upon RCL the other day and saw a setup as a bear flag break. A bear flag is the opposite of a bull flag. It's just consolidation before the next push. I drew an "internal" trend line on the daily and shorted the breakdown and held through the retest up to $48 area as you see the green candle came back and failed to break through the line. Twice actually there two days in a row. Trend lines are never precise and an internal one captures the most points one is evident. The one I drew here is a little rough but showed the big picture. I made a good trade on RCL with weekly puts and sold on the gap down move. I think it has a lot more downside and may re-enter.

BEAT started to go red candle during the day above the upper bollinger band which is "the kiss of death". The candle has to print though and we didn't get it but usually these massive spikers that get far above upper bollie come down the next day. I shorted some and got stopped out. It will have a red day sooner or later. Maybe Monday. FNGR is a similar chart. FNGR keeps squeezing.

Thursday, September 29, 2022

Daily Evaluation 9/28/2022

I had a bad trade on ADBE that was oversized that ruined the day because the loss was big. I had a good SPY trade that helped but selection was bad and risk management was bad. Big loss day. Today the 29th was about the same but couldn't get anything going after I missed the bulk of the a.m. move. I nailed a long on FNGR on the red to green move but entered in the wrong share amount. Just that kind of day with sloppy errors. I am going to have to avoid IWM SPY until a clear trend is made. This chop the last two days hasn't worked for me trading them.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Daily Evaluation 9/27/2022

My broker has a one day lag on execution downloads. So, today I could import the file to Tradersync. I Traded well and ended green on the BABA IWM shorts. I would probably score myself an A on everything except trade size. Maybe a B on that. Trade management was good, risk management was good, selectivity was very good as it wasn't a day to force longs with market off, position sizing maybe better.

Monday, September 26, 2022

Daily Evaluation 9/26/2022

Still waiting on my funds to hit my new broker for my daytrading. I put on and off some options trades today. I was eyeing LEN puts and put it on the back burner so didn't get in. I just watched the market in the morning mostly and afternoon. I put on a IBB call to hedge some of these puts and shorts I have.

Friday, September 23, 2022

Daily Evaluation 9/23/2022

I had a record day or second best record highest profit day from puts. I made one daytrade and started and closed some long swings. I took profits well on the puts and considered buying more puts but backed off. Trade management was good, risk management was good, selectivity was good, position sizing was appropriate on todays longs. Only thing I could have done better was hold a little longer but I locked in most UUP calls so scaling was better. Earnings plays with puts and short stock are what I am going to experiement with next week on more cyclical names.

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Evaluation 9/22/2022 Puts and Calls

I put on a lot of position puts today. Still not daytrading as I'm waiting on funds to hit my new broker. I think it should be tomorrow or very soon. My playbook is very large and I'm starting to favor short selling intra-day and weekly. I was only or mostly a long investor for a long time in the past and briefly daytraded in the past. I think seeing things from a long traders perspective adds greatly to skill as a short seller. I know what these spike charts look like and how they behave from being stuck on the wrong side as a long trader so many times in the past. The best setups I took over the past several trading sessions were intra-day spikers on high day rangers. I can tell based on just looking at the last month or so of the large move green days candle lengths when to start to look for a short. That in concert with the slople of the run-up to the top with volume and price evening out on the 2 min chart. Volume at the top is not always spot on but a few minutes or so of sideways price action is a good indicator of a top starting.

I sold FREY for a gain near open. Should have held a partial for follow through. I was worried about losing the gain and it kept going off the triangle daily. I know these setups are strong so I need to manage them like they are. I took DISH AZUL RNA short. Bought XHB BBBY puts. Took a loss on a swing XLK call. I locked in most of CPTN. That one was a gain. Had a gain on SPRO caught it low 2.00s. Tried to short NAIL with my swing broker didn't get it no shares I guess. Took a starter on ZFOX and bought a CANO call. I was glad I could scalp a little today even with it being my position trade broker. I'm pretty happy with my trading today except the FREY sell. I could have gone bigger on CANO. I was thinking about the last couple weeks of my trading and I tend to overtrade in the first 30 minutes to an hour of the day. I need to be aware of this and back off at the open some.

Monday, September 19, 2022

Setback with Broker

I made trades through my broker like I always do but somehow some went through as cash orders so my intraday buying power was knocked down without me realizing it. I missed the afternoon range break on IWM right as I had to call my broker and was on the phone with them for an hour atleast. Fidelity is just too unrealiable for a couple reasons for daytrading. I can't select margin or cash so I would assume it would all be margin as I'm a daytrader using their "Active Trader" platform. But sometimes it sends cash orders which throws off my balances. The platform doesn't adjust quickly also so you have to go off the website to see your holdings. I'm hesitant to place any orders until I can get my cash out and to another broker for daytrading. I'm pretty upset about it so I'm not going to place any trades the rest of the day.

Friday, September 16, 2022

Daily Evaluation 9/16/2022

Not considering P and L I'm going to say my worst trade was buying FREY late. It looks like I ended up buying it after a big run at HOD. My best trades were two overbought shorts on AMRS again and IRNT. IRNT was the biggest money maker on the day. I had IRNT as a focus stock and managed to catch it climbing on my watchlist to get a short in. I'm not seeing any standout really bad trades put on. I didn't do any overtrading either. I held to my stop losses and managed risk very well. All losses were small. Only downfall of the day was not keeping breakdown trades on long enough with ACCO KC. I ended up putting some breakdown trades on late in the afternoon expecting more lows on SPY IWM. I actually had a feeling there was going to be a late afternoon rally as it was a range-bound day on IWM SPY and it was such a big gap down. I came out ahead on my SPY IWM trades. They have been surprsingly easy to trade with just trend lines and basic support resistance. I need to keep drawing up lines on charts because I'm getting great signals.

I'm really happy with my AMRS IRNT shorts. I feel the most confident right now shorting setups like this intraday. I liked having size on IRNT because I could scale out all the way down. I added some on the position too when it was going as expected.

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Watches for 9/16/2022

IRNT is still short bias. Management canceled the conference call, refused to provide earnings guidance and the CEO quit all just now.

Some Short bias


Some long bias


Daily Trading Evaluation 9/15/2022

If somebody told me they shorted AMRS today close to 4.80 I probably wouldn't believe them if I didn't know them. I got a short on at 4.77 today. It wasn't my only entry though. I shorted another tranche at 4.73, 4.20 and 4.18. The last two were my second trade on it.My exits were 4.65, 4.51 4.48, 4.43 on the first wave down. My expectation was I was likely just shorting a bull flag so I covered quickly expecting to have to get out of the way of the next up move. I am happy with my scaling out. I wasn't happy about not going with more size on the initial short near hod (high of day). I have been needing to go with more size on these hod shorts with good entry. I know my max risk I can go but either because I'm in a hurry or just want to watch risk I haven't gone as big as possible. It's a good thing I am nailing these setups though 3 or 4 days in a row now though either on SHOP or IWM. I just happened to have AMRS on my watchlist because it flagged the other day around low 3.00s. My bias flip was great. That's one thing I have improved on a lot. My risk management and overtrading is better but still needs attention.

Tradersync is showing my worst loss trades were X and TERN. X was more of a daily chart setup I forced in anticipation. TERN was a failed supernova second day. The supernovas are more difficult than they were 10 years ago or so. RDBX REV APRN NERV(the current one) don't really go into a smooth backside or top out fast. It used to be most daily supernovas looked lke this AMRS chart exactly. Which is why it went away. It was so easy in some ways.

Selectivity was better today. Trade management was good. Overtrading was better. Hard stops were better but could be better. Risk management could have been better on X and TERN. TERN was more of a failed setup though. I traded it well it just didn't play out. I made other trades in other tickers but I just want to deeply review my best and worst today and have my improvement plan ongoing. I should continue to short hod either on stocks or indices if the market provides. Continue to trust intution and experience.