Thursday, November 15, 2012

Inefficient Markets

From watching the recent news about all the volatility and seeing so many uneducated short-termists in the US markets I believe the markets may be less efficient now than before the internet revolution. This is opposite of the what efficient market theory tries to prove. Efficient market theory an accepted idea in some academia states that with the availability of free information to people who purchase and sell stocks that stocks are priced efficiently. This is bullshit. As many have proven, notably Warren Buffett,“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient,”said Buffett.

Before the internet it was harder for the average Jane's to get their hands on up to date info like the professionals about companies financial info. Frankly fewer people were investing as trade commissions were far greater than they are today. My thesis is, even though more info is available markets are less efficient and people recognize intrinsic value less often. So what I'm hypothesizing now is it seems the markets are way less efficient now with available info and access to online brokerages with millions of people who don't know what their doing in regards to the real value of the companies they are trading and speculating. They have little to no education in investing and certainly contribute to over-inflated pricing as happens in any bubble. Is it possible that the bubble's and crashes will be exaggerated by this individual investor with access to brokerage services? It is interesting to see what has happened and will happen in an industry that used to be dominated by an elite few and now encompasses more of the population. I believe that a contrarian strategy of investing in the markets is even more applicable today because of the internet and the popular "following the herd" mentality.

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