Saturday, October 8, 2022

Setups Evaluator

I use Tradersync to track my performance. My best setup by far is crude oil multi-day and it's not even close. Roughly 28 trades total spanning a couple years atleast. I have multiple accounts so I probably missed several trades atleast from years ago which likely would even improve my stats. The past couple years I'm solid on it though. My average winning % on crude is 75%, losing percentage 73% with a 69% win rate. Average winners hold time is 2 days and losers hold time is 2 days.

The obvious thing to do from those stats when I first looked at them months ago was to tighten up the losing percentage. The only thing is I hold the options for days and sometimes would be in the red before they went green. Just based off memory once they went over 50 or 60% red I would usually be wrong for sure. So I decided to have a general rule of stopping out at 55-60%. Because losing 100% at expiration is bad if I know I should cut earlier. I know it's more important to stop out when I know I'm wrong based on technicals alone. So the more I think about it that should be a factor too. In the past though I would just let them ride to zero because I know the winners would make up it. So I am going to monitor them better.

My second best setup has been buying long consolidation triangles. I am super picky on what they are which is good. A perfect triangle doesn't show up much though. But it is definitely a strong setup. I've sort of viewed my multi-day breakdown setups as the same as bear flag setups because they are pretty similiar in nature. I'm going to analyze these a little more so I can screen nightly better. My hunch is lower volume, lower market cap are better setups. I'm doing some backtesting with Stockfetcher this weekend to fine tune this. I'm looking at a gap down screen too for shorts.

My other decent enough sample sizes are long bull flags which to me is a consolidation flag over 3 days. Under 3 days I call high flags. My long bull flag is 39 trades atleast with a 43% win rate. I think over 40% win rate is a workable setup for me. Supernova short setup is 32 trades 47% win rate. Breakdowns are 61 trades 42% win rate. I need to enter in the last week of trades to update all these but I don't see it effecting any significantly to the downside. I have a sample of 37 trades with multi-day breakouts but only 32% winners and average win percentage 10%, loss 6% and still overall it is a net loser. This just reinforces the common knowledge that pure breakouts are usually an overcrowded trade and ceased to be consistent years if not decades ago overall.

No comments:

Post a Comment