World Equity Markets

Right now I'm bearish on the U.S. equity markets over the next 1 to 3 years. With escalating commodity prices, inflation, rising bond yields, unfavorable interest rates and likely Fed tightening I think the US markets and economy will flat-line or grow slightly. Of course lower stock prices mean better bargains and as investors flee short-term a wise investor buys long-term. Every bull market has its bear. The more overextended the bull is the more devasting the fall. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I believe Americans are slightly underexposed to foreign markets. Is it a coincidence that the majority of their investments are in the country that gains from this allocation? All the huge long-term future growth is in emerging markets like India,China,Russia,Latin America and parts of Asia. Furthermore, the U.S. equity markets have returned around 7% this year compared to almost double that in other countries. The U.S. GDP is growing at around 3%. China's GDP is growing at 12-13%. Bursting of a bubble in China will present great long-term buying opportunities. This closed end fund Claymore/BNY BRIC (EEB) has no U.S. holdings and is allocated heavily in Brazil 47% of assets, Hong Kong 26%,India 13, China 7, Russia 5%. This all India vehicle isn't an etf but a debt security that tracks the Indian index. iPath MSCI India Index ETN NYSE:INP. It is not actively managed and is one of the best vehicles to invest in India. A guy in India just recommended to me ICICI Bank and a construction company DLF. To bad DLF isn't an ADR.

Lazare Kaplan International Inc. (LKI)

Maybe a hidden gem? Lazare is in the diamond business and is selling for less than its current assets minus all debts. About half of those assets are diamonds I assume in inventory and surely they have some worth in these assets. So if the company is selling for close to these hard assets not even including any other claims or plant property and equipment isn't the future growth of earnings and cash flow for this company basically free here. Looks like it could be a steal at $8.05. They've had some trouble with a joint venture and earnings recently came in lower than expected at a $.01 a share. Probably not a long-term setback.

*not recommending as a buy here.

Boss Holdings BSHI

In looking for a red tag sale on Wallstreet recently I've come across some interesting companies selling for less than their current assets minus all liabilities. Most of them don't make money consistently so maybe you could make the argument that they don't deserve to sell for book value. This company, however has been profitable more consistently. The business is pretty straight forward they sell gloves, boots, and rainwear products primarily to retailers, including convenience stores, mass merchandisers, and hardware and grocery stores; and industrial customers comprising companies operating in the agricultural, automotive, energy, lumber, and construction industries. They've been in business for decades. The only major macro obstacle I could foresee is if companies that manufacture with cheaper labor say in China and kill their margins. They are working on improving margins though and sales are more flat than hugely down with the exception of one segment that is growing. At $7.35 it is selling for a cheap valuation, however, it looks more attractive at $6 or $5. Had one picked up a company I wrote about, RCMT at $6.60 there was a 20% return in just some weeks.

RCM Technologies Inc. (RCMT

It looked pretty cheap by way of some valuation multiples when I found it a few weeks or so ago and wrote briefly on them. The stock has been pretty active in recent days, up 5% for one day and is trading for $7 and change from $6.06 in the past couple weeks or so. I like that they have free cash flow, profit margins aren't the best but I suspect customers may be loyal and revenue pretty consistent. This one deserves a closer look at the overall business and competition to see if people are missing something and it is in fact undervalued. It is a tiny company. I'm not sure what good it would do to compare its valuation to the larger competitors or use a discounted cash flow model because its operating results are pretty sporadic in such a competitive industry.

I've had a lot of success spotting undervalued larger companies with sustainable competitive advantages that are undervalued because often just by looking at the financial statements paying attention to obvious things and looking at valuation multiples like pe, pe/pe growth, roe, etc. you can get a rough picture about whether or not it is cheap because it is being avoided for good reasons or stupid reasons like short-term fears or following the herd.

Eternal Technologies ETLTQ Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) Bargain?

Benjamin Graham, one of Buffett's most influential teachers is famous for his net current asset stocks, he held as much as 100 in a portfolio in the years after the depression. Buying stocks at a discount to their net current assets less total liabilities placed no value on the fixed assets and is a rough liquidation value. A diversified portfolio of these cigar-butt investments; hold until you get a little price increase (last puff) and sell was lucrative for Graham with a portfolio of them dishing out double digit returns. They still can be nowadays though they are harder to find. Of course many of them are cheap for a reason and are perennially cheap. Here is an interesting one.

This company, ETERNAL TECHNOLOGIES GROUP, INC. (ETLT.ob) looks cheap here, especially considering their most recent quarter. They've delivered the steak but the stock hasn't sizzled and is not loved. I found them months ago thanks to The Mico-Cap Speculator I was skeptical and still am but I can't overlook a company that makes me go "Wow" when I look at it. A net current asset stock with an attractive balance sheet, income statement, cash flows, good history, new plans, management that delivers and a price on the stock market that is so cheap it may even be irrational.

Moving along to the most recent quarter net current assets of $41,949,326.00 against
as of May 15, 2007, 47,073,279 shares of Common Stock outstanding times current price of $.65 a pop = $30.5 mil market cap against net current assets of almost $42 million.

This is a huge discount, especially considering the liquidity of these assets.
Eternal Technologies Group, Inc. Reports Record Revenues and Record Earnings for the Year-Ended December 31, 2006

For the last quarter March 07 in this year 07' vs 06'

Income highlights
Agricultural and genetics sales $ 5,726,797 vs. $ 3,608,572
Medical devices sales and services 1,498,065 vs. 607,787
Land lease 297,245 vs. -

Total revenue 7,522,107 vs. 4,216,359

Gross profit 1,522,660 vs. 1,161,724

Net income per common share
basic and diluted $ 0.03 vs. $ 0.01

Cash Flows
Net cash provided by operating activities 11,025,082 vs 4,597,423

Cash and cash equivalents, end of period $ 25,299,565

They have a new project found on their website. The site is a little unorthodox.

"Thermal Tomography System is a wholly new detecting system, with a leading diagnostic technology which has not yet been reported in the world. At present, the main detecting methods are molybdenum target tube and Doppler imaging system.

This system, without physical contact, trauma, and suffering, is an advanced green detecting method.
This system receives information from surface temperature collected by infrared imaging. After automatic analysis, it receives the curve describing temperature. According to the contrast between it and model curve, the diagnostic conclusion can be received fast. During the detection, it is based on objective data, which avoids the inaccuracy made by people.

This technology can be used for detection of many diseases, not only mammary gland, but also other organs of human body. At present, a research group led by Professor Li Kaiyang is researching ¡°process of normal cells into cancerous cells¡± with this technology. Once successful, this technology will play an epoch-making role in medical diagnosis."
-source, http://www.eternaltechs.com/prespective.asp


"Eternal is a major agricultural genetics and biopharmaceutical R&D firm operating in China with the support of the Chinese Government. Eternal's animal breeding division has a strong asset base, cash position and net income. Eternal has become one of China's leading institutions for biopharmaceutical and biotech research, pure breed cultivation and breed stock production. The Company has secured a key market niche by commercializing gene engineering technologies and providing superior breeding stock, allowing China's citizens the ability to improve their living standards. With the world's largest population, a double-digit national growth rate and entry into the WTO, Eternal Technologies has a playing field set for tremendous opportunity. As a prominent player in the agricultural genetics industry, cash in the bank and an untapped market, Eternal has the potential to become a major player in China's national growth."
-source, http://news.morningstar.com/news/ViewNews.asp?article=/BW/20070403005870_univ.xml&pgid=qtqnPress2

They obviously don't have a great investor relations department but is its current price below net current assets justified, ceterus peribus. I feel this is a great speculative contrarian opportunity for a small position in a portfolio.


disclosure: author is long Eternal Technologies (ETLT)

Taitron Below Net Current Asset Value NCAV

Taitron Components (TAIT)
Let's just say an interesting business. It is a very small company and is international. It is in the distribution and supply of brand name electronic components, and original designed and manufactured (ODM) electronic components like discrete semiconductors. They also provide ODM services, such as outsourced product design and manufacturing assembly services for contract electronic manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers. The company sells its products in the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China, Taiwan, Canada, and internationally.

The stock price has risen consistently overall to where it is today from a deep low of $1.51 in mid 2005.

At its current market price of $2.74 as of June 1st on the exchange it is selling for below net current assets (net current assets - total liabilities) coming from its most recent quarterly on the SEC's site. This should be pretty close to its liquidation value theoretically but isn't close to the floor for the stock. But is the market efficient? Checking out some other things, they've reduced their long-term debt for the past 3 quarters but surprisingly this year they started paying a dividend of $.10 a share that they plan on keeping for 5 years. I don't think they have the cash flows or the opportunity that warrants paying a dividend with the business currently at hand. They have grown book value over the years and have always traded at low multiples. Are they expecting something great this year or next? Interesting. I'll be updating over the next days with some other small-cappers that I think have even maybe more potential and leave me scratching my head.

http://www.taitroncomponents.com/

Fat Yield: Winthrop Realty Trust (FUR),LTC Properties (LTC),TC Pipelines, LP (TCLP),One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP),ProLogis (PLD)

Winthrop Realty Trust, Inc. (FUR)
3.5% div yield. A REIT that has grown nicely over recent years. Owns office buildings around the country.

LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC)
6% div yield. 12 times eps. A healthcare real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in long-term care and other healthcare related properties through mortgage loans, property lease transactions and other investments.

TC Pipelines, LP (TCLP)
6% div yield. dividend has 3% growth rate over last 5 years. Stock trades at $40 up from $15 in 2000. "TC PipeLines, LP is a United States growth-oriented Master Limited Partnership (MLP). It was formed by TransCanada PipeLines Limited to acquire, own and actively participate in the management of United States based natural gas pipelines and related assets."1


One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP)
6% div yield. Nice steady, slowly rising dividend going back at least 10 years. "One Liberty Properties, Inc. (One Liberty Properties) is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment Trust (REIT). The Company acquires, owns and manages a geographically diversified portfolio of retail, industrial, office, health and fitness, and other properties, a substantial portion of which are under long-term leases."2

ProLogis (PLD)
about 3% div yield, 3% growth past 5 years. "ProLogis is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust that operates a global network of real estate properties, primarily industrial distribution properties. It manages its business by utilizing the ProLogis Operating System, an organizational structure and service delivery system, which when combined with its international network, enables ProLogis to meet customers' distribution space needs on a global basis. The Company is organized into three business segments: property operations, fund management and CDFS business."3

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Netflix Undervalued: Netflix vs Blockbuster

With Blockbusters attempt to compete with Netflix in the online movie rentals they may be seen as a legitimate competitor to Netflix, however, the obvious differences in the companies gives Netflix the advantage. Blockbuster's new total access plan where customers can exchange and rent movies in the stores seems like a good idea for the company with thousands of costly stores and employees but the average store only stocks about 6,000 movies compared to 10 times that online. It simply costs more to operate a brick and mortar like Blockbuster. If there are price wars I'm picking Netflix who has years of experience building up their online company vs. Blockbuster burdened by fixed costs. Netflix just had a hiccup with revenue and earnings probably because of Blockbuster but longer-term they have this market over Blockbuster and Movie Gallery. It's not smart to predict to far, say 5+ years in a world of rapidly changing technology however. Who knows what will happen with Tivo and the future home entertainment networks.

Netflix as of May 10th 2007 is trading for $21.91 per share. Fear and market sell offs that drive down stock prices but don't effect long-term prospects are some of the best buying opportunities. Netflix is currently selling for about 6 times free cash. Five year average net margins of 3% compared to Blockbusters -8%.
If Netflix can grow free cash flow to 354.31 in five years the stock currently is undervalued using a discounted cash flow model.
354.31 / (1+10%)raised to 5 years= net present value of cash flow 214, below its current 220.


disclosure: author doesn't own any shares of Netflix

Dearborn Bancorp DEAR

This Michigan based Bank holding company Dearborn Bancorp, Inc. (DEAR) on the Nasdaq offers a range of financial products and services mostly to commercial small and mid sized business. They just purchased Fidelity Financial Corporation in Michigan for $70.5 million in cash and will be taking their name. It was interesting to see how management is very candid in the annual report about how their name has limited them in their success so this new name and acquisition if all goes well should be a great achievement for the company which just reached total assets of $1 billion after the purchase. They have grown extremely fast to get there opening in 94' with $7 mil.

I was really impressed with managements discussion and honesty. I was curious about them not paying a cash dividend and they addressed that by saying they are still in a growth mode. They have payed stock dividends. They missed earnings guidance which I see as no big deal considering they can keep up the growth long-term. Earnings growth over the last 5 years has been at 25%. The stock has been hated over the last year now trading at around $15 a share a three year low. Some companies only say they are shareholder oriented but Dearborn means it. Management has just said shares are undervalued and are buying back up to 400,000 of the Company's common shares.

John Demmer, the Company's chairman, announced the Board's action. He added, "Given our Company's unusually strong capital position and the conditions in the market for the stock of all Michigan banking organizations, our board determined that this stock repurchase plan may be a prudent use of our ample resources that serves the best interests of all of our shareholders."

There are big risks for the company like competition, economic weakness in Southeast Michigan and a flat yield curve.

Company Delivers But the Stocks Don't?

Walmart and Coca-cola have performed nicely over the last several years but the stocks haven't. Walmart's revenues and profits have increased greatly since 2000 with earnings per share increasing from $1.25 to $2.72 but the share price hasn't reflected it. Coca-cola has grown earnings at a decent rate and the shares are flat. This rattles me in a way although I realize stock prices aren't efficient and even in many cases sensible especially in the short-term. It means that the expectations investors had for these companies I suppose didn't live up to what was expected. The stocks were somewhat overvalued but not that overvalued.

Walmart hasn't done a perfect job of allocating capital. They pumped a lot into marketing without any huge improvements in higher priced product mix like Target. Walmart has its niche as low prices only compared to Targets more diverse offering of higher priced items. Walmarts position and model should serve it well though and certainly has in the past.

This questions my ideologies. Warren Buffett and many great investors have said if a company does well the stock eventually follows. Some people think management is responsible for the stock price by giving returns to shareholders like at Disney and that Home Depot's ceo was responsible for HD's poor share price performance and complained. What more can management like Walmart's, Home Depot's and Coke's do than grow shareholder equity and earnings while maintaining its competitive position? In general isn't this why business value and investors stockholder equity grow? Does a great company's share price in traded capital markets have to rise over time or is it all dependent on psychology? It seems the investors desire to own a company via its stock is unpredictable and therefore so is the stock price EVEN WHEN THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. Psychology makes the markets inefficient and are responsible for investing being almost as much art as science. One of the most common defenses of the market being ineffecient is that a company trades because of earnings and earnings growth discounted for the future. I think examples like this might debunk that explanation.

Best Buy

Why buy Best Buy. First of all its the leader in its industry. Circuit City just made the genius decision to fire its highest paid, best floor staff to cut costs. Radio Shack brick and mortars are less than half the size. Destroying the competition isn't a good enough reason to invest. The company is operated well and has consistent rising earnings per share and good cash flow and even pays a dividend. The company is customer oriented. They just announced that 200 Apple in-stores will be implemented. This is a sleep at night stock in my opinion because of their competitive advantage and likely stable future prospects. I'm not sure in 15 years how the internet will factor though.

None of this matters though unless the shares are undervalued. The company can fetch a premium stock price and can grow EPS at 15% year over year. Its currently selling for about 17 times earnings at $47. I think at a PE in the low teens it may be undervalued this year. It could become more attractive in a market sell off or recession which would be a good time to pick up shares.