Watchlist 11-16.22

Long bias

TLT NCMI AFMD PRTS TBLT NVTA HOOD

Short bias

PTVB GLYC EVER MDRX CLOW CVGI PCG NNDM KNDI BYND CHWY DISH MPLN DS

Watchlist 11-15-22

Long Bias

NCMI DMTK NVTA IRN DWAC OTRK SATX COSM HOOD

Short bias

JBHT GRWG CVGI GLYC SLS MDRX PCG CABALGHL KNDI LASE APLD BITO

Near 52 W Short Bias

UP ANGI AIRS TIL OPEN NRBO QTNT

BITO a short

I really see Bitcoin going lower before there is capitulation. It may drop quickly like it has in the past any hour now. So, I think it's prudent to get long BITO puts with a Nov 25th or later expiration to give it some time incase it consolidates first.I'm going to go with Nov 25 7.50's

Trading Watchlist 11-14-22

Long Bias

NCMI needs a break of .59

GLT needs 3.60 break

DWAC needs 26.50

COSM

SATX needs 12.54

BABA

APTO

Short Bias

PCG needs 14.64

MDRX needs 18.01

LASE needs 2.71

CLOW needs 1.64

VERU

APLD multi-day

Market Flip

I was holding CGC calls today and took HOOD Nov 18 11.00 calls. Those were up 200% today. i still have a couple shorts with YSG DXYN DS

52 Week lows Scans

I've been getting good expectancy with 2 52 week low scans. One filters for gap downs. Both I look for low RSI atleast below 75. I've found a lot of these low RSI's to have red days even when the overall market is green. Some can bounce back really hard and run though when the market is green some days. I've been selective about which I hold overnight and the whole day.

Optimizing Strategies

I came to the realization I've been trading in and out of a lot of winners on my 52 week breakdowns setups when it would be better overall to just hold multi-day. It takes a lot of precious time to enter orders and set stops even if I use stop orders to buy I have to think about the whole thing. I was actually short LUNG a week or two ago and took it off radar. It just dropped like 30% or more in one day on Friday. I think I was short CVNA too it dropped huge too. But even the lower market cap ones that have been my bread and butter just keep dropping too even without any significant green days. To offset overnight risk I want to just diversify and I'm sure I will catch oversized moves in some to make up for the overnight risk. I incorporated gap downs into this scan too and it's kind of the perfect number of daily charts to screen through to cherry pick.

I just went through my setups with the most trades overall to look for positive expectancy. All are over 20 trades most over 30 or more. TLT options is 17 and it has promise so I am going to keep at that one. My best ones are 52 week breakdown, supernova shorts, long bull flags, USO options multi-day. I'm going to have to back off IWM intra-day becuase I tend to overtrade it even though I do get good winners out of it. I've noticed the best setups on it are usually at key support levels at low of day or high of day anyway. Too much chop and you never know when it will start but it always does for sure after 12:30pm.

Robinhood Channel Breakout

Robinhood the investor app has held up very well during this downturn in the market. It broke out of a channel and retested and held. It might be a good target for a bigger broker to buy because they have the younger market and the app technology is good. The only bad thing about it is the brand credibility which would be erroded after it was taken over. Just a scenario.

Technical Analysis of S&P 500 Index SPY

I drew up some internal lines on SPY and you can see we are clearly in an uptrend now off the confirmation of the early October levels being busted through. The only thing to watch now is how the uptrend channel holds up. I have to assume it is going to keep ripping through the yellow levels as long as trend support is held.

Watches for Thursday

My top long bias watches are GOVX AMPX USEA PRTY. Top short bias watches SLS EPIX KULR ARDX SST DCFC PEGY AZUL SAN

Daily Evaluation

I had a really good scalp on BABA in the morning and should have switched to long setups off my long watchlist but I took a few too many trades on BABA and gave some back. I juggled some longer-term positions and did some more IWM. I need to not expect to get multiple good trades off the same ticker each day. If I had just stopped scalping BABA I would have had a better day. I missed one of my long watches SLS because I was looking at other stuff.

Daily Evaluations 10/21

Friday the 21st was ok as far as my executing. I mostly just scalped and traded IWM. When it's readable I trade it well especially off support and resistance lines that have held. I've noticed that lately it is respecting major levels. Probably because everything is so choppy now. I still am preparing myself to see weeks of range-bound action as this oversold suppport level is worked out. As of today the stock market is literally the same as it was Sept. 22 a month ago. I've seen ranges like this years ago where it trades up and down in a channel for weeks. I come everyday prepared for a green market day or a red one with my watchlists full for shorts and long setups. 52 week lows, supernova shorts, and channel breakdowns are my go-to for shorts. Multi-day breakout and any flags or sideways or triangle consolidation breaks are my go-to longs. Sometimes oversold bounces. HBLZ is a good one now.

Today I made some great trades scalping BABA in the A.M. and some good reads on IWM but I gave gains back overtrading IWM. My winrate is actually increasing on IWM but I need to not push my luck as it gets farther into the day because it literally always get super choppy in mid afternoon. My plan going forward and it worked today is to trade regular stocks from 9:30am to 9:45ish then look at IWM and index ETFs. I have been doing XHB and NAIL a lot too. My selectivity wasn't awful today but wasn't quite good enough possibly because I wasn't rested. I have overtraded the most when I'm the most tired. Trade management was good, risk management was ok. My thinking going forward is to keep multi-day option trades on at all times like USO or natural gas or GLD GDX so I can get a cushion on gains so I'm not forcing trades during regular session. I like to look at my IWM charts at the end of the day. Almost always the first direction it breaksout to in the first 15 minutes is the fakeout then the real moves are the opposite direction. Today it popped out of that range and looked bullish then spike topped again and crashed. So choppy until even after 10:30am. I need to work on selectivity, fine tuning risk management with entries.