XLE Technical Analysis Rounding Top Pattern

This is a confirmed rounding top pattern on XLE now. Short bias. XOM is similiar.

Big Week! Watchlist for 12-5

Long Bias

CLF DOW ZEUS STLD IYM DS IRBT BLI WRN AMRS NWTN CFMS XLY

Short Bias

NEON ZH VAPO ANGO PVBC BMTX DCFC OPEN VCSA UVXY TTCF LE PTON CLOW XOM XLE FDMT

Watching this triangle neutral on ABEO

VNQ Technicals

The ETF VNQ is putting up some strong technicals as well.

XHB Technical Analysis Hard to Be Bearish

With an inverted yield curve going on for so long it is wise to be bearish on the economy from history. However, the bottom that was put in on the markets on October 13th continues to push higher even if it just grinds higher slightly day after day like this week.

Being bearish you would want to see a cyclical and consumer tied sector like home building show weakness. It's the exact opposite. This chart of the ETF XHB is very bullish right now. It retested the trading range which is the horizontal line and has trend support which is the diagonal line. The shorter line is the "bull" flag. It's going to take a major news or event to reverse this chart. It very well can happen and it's best to be opened minded but at this moment stocks look bullish. Even tech with QQQ is hanging around.

Crude Oil Spike out of Nowhere

Watchlist 11-16.22

Long bias

TLT NCMI AFMD PRTS TBLT NVTA HOOD

Short bias

PTVB GLYC EVER MDRX CLOW CVGI PCG NNDM KNDI BYND CHWY DISH MPLN DS

Watchlist 11-15-22

Long Bias

NCMI DMTK NVTA IRN DWAC OTRK SATX COSM HOOD

Short bias

JBHT GRWG CVGI GLYC SLS MDRX PCG CABALGHL KNDI LASE APLD BITO

Near 52 W Short Bias

UP ANGI AIRS TIL OPEN NRBO QTNT

BITO a short

I really see Bitcoin going lower before there is capitulation. It may drop quickly like it has in the past any hour now. So, I think it's prudent to get long BITO puts with a Nov 25th or later expiration to give it some time incase it consolidates first.I'm going to go with Nov 25 7.50's

Trading Watchlist 11-14-22

Long Bias

NCMI needs a break of .59

GLT needs 3.60 break

DWAC needs 26.50

COSM

SATX needs 12.54

BABA

APTO

Short Bias

PCG needs 14.64

MDRX needs 18.01

LASE needs 2.71

CLOW needs 1.64

VERU

APLD multi-day

Market Flip

I was holding CGC calls today and took HOOD Nov 18 11.00 calls. Those were up 200% today. i still have a couple shorts with YSG DXYN DS

52 Week lows Scans

I've been getting good expectancy with 2 52 week low scans. One filters for gap downs. Both I look for low RSI atleast below 75. I've found a lot of these low RSI's to have red days even when the overall market is green. Some can bounce back really hard and run though when the market is green some days. I've been selective about which I hold overnight and the whole day.

Optimizing Strategies

I came to the realization I've been trading in and out of a lot of winners on my 52 week breakdowns setups when it would be better overall to just hold multi-day. It takes a lot of precious time to enter orders and set stops even if I use stop orders to buy I have to think about the whole thing. I was actually short LUNG a week or two ago and took it off radar. It just dropped like 30% or more in one day on Friday. I think I was short CVNA too it dropped huge too. But even the lower market cap ones that have been my bread and butter just keep dropping too even without any significant green days. To offset overnight risk I want to just diversify and I'm sure I will catch oversized moves in some to make up for the overnight risk. I incorporated gap downs into this scan too and it's kind of the perfect number of daily charts to screen through to cherry pick.

I just went through my setups with the most trades overall to look for positive expectancy. All are over 20 trades most over 30 or more. TLT options is 17 and it has promise so I am going to keep at that one. My best ones are 52 week breakdown, supernova shorts, long bull flags, USO options multi-day. I'm going to have to back off IWM intra-day becuase I tend to overtrade it even though I do get good winners out of it. I've noticed the best setups on it are usually at key support levels at low of day or high of day anyway. Too much chop and you never know when it will start but it always does for sure after 12:30pm.