Monday, November 14, 2022

Trading Watchlist 11-14-22

Long Bias

NCMI needs a break of .59

GLT needs 3.60 break

DWAC needs 26.50

COSM

SATX needs 12.54

BABA

APTO

Short Bias

PCG needs 14.64

MDRX needs 18.01

LASE needs 2.71

CLOW needs 1.64

VERU

APLD multi-day

Friday, November 11, 2022

Market Flip

I was holding CGC calls today and took HOOD Nov 18 11.00 calls. Those were up 200% today. i still have a couple shorts with YSG DXYN DS

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

52 Week lows Scans

I've been getting good expectancy with 2 52 week low scans. One filters for gap downs. Both I look for low RSI atleast below 75. I've found a lot of these low RSI's to have red days even when the overall market is green. Some can bounce back really hard and run though when the market is green some days. I've been selective about which I hold overnight and the whole day.

Saturday, November 5, 2022

Optimizing Strategies

I came to the realization I've been trading in and out of a lot of winners on my 52 week breakdowns setups when it would be better overall to just hold multi-day. It takes a lot of precious time to enter orders and set stops even if I use stop orders to buy I have to think about the whole thing. I was actually short LUNG a week or two ago and took it off radar. It just dropped like 30% or more in one day on Friday. I think I was short CVNA too it dropped huge too. But even the lower market cap ones that have been my bread and butter just keep dropping too even without any significant green days. To offset overnight risk I want to just diversify and I'm sure I will catch oversized moves in some to make up for the overnight risk. I incorporated gap downs into this scan too and it's kind of the perfect number of daily charts to screen through to cherry pick.

I just went through my setups with the most trades overall to look for positive expectancy. All are over 20 trades most over 30 or more. TLT options is 17 and it has promise so I am going to keep at that one. My best ones are 52 week breakdown, supernova shorts, long bull flags, USO options multi-day. I'm going to have to back off IWM intra-day becuase I tend to overtrade it even though I do get good winners out of it. I've noticed the best setups on it are usually at key support levels at low of day or high of day anyway. Too much chop and you never know when it will start but it always does for sure after 12:30pm.

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Robinhood Channel Breakout

Robinhood the investor app has held up very well during this downturn in the market. It broke out of a channel and retested and held. It might be a good target for a bigger broker to buy because they have the younger market and the app technology is good. The only bad thing about it is the brand credibility which would be erroded after it was taken over. Just a scenario.
robinhood chart

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Technical Analysis of S&P 500 Index SPY

I drew up some internal lines on SPY and you can see we are clearly in an uptrend now off the confirmation of the early October levels being busted through. The only thing to watch now is how the uptrend channel holds up. I have to assume it is going to keep ripping through the yellow levels as long as trend support is held.

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Watches for Thursday

My top long bias watches are GOVX AMPX USEA PRTY. Top short bias watches SLS EPIX KULR ARDX SST DCFC PEGY AZUL SAN

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Daily Evaluation

I had a really good scalp on BABA in the morning and should have switched to long setups off my long watchlist but I took a few too many trades on BABA and gave some back. I juggled some longer-term positions and did some more IWM. I need to not expect to get multiple good trades off the same ticker each day. If I had just stopped scalping BABA I would have had a better day. I missed one of my long watches SLS because I was looking at other stuff.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Daily Evaluations 10/21

Friday the 21st was ok as far as my executing. I mostly just scalped and traded IWM. When it's readable I trade it well especially off support and resistance lines that have held. I've noticed that lately it is respecting major levels. Probably because everything is so choppy now. I still am preparing myself to see weeks of range-bound action as this oversold suppport level is worked out. As of today the stock market is literally the same as it was Sept. 22 a month ago. I've seen ranges like this years ago where it trades up and down in a channel for weeks. I come everyday prepared for a green market day or a red one with my watchlists full for shorts and long setups. 52 week lows, supernova shorts, and channel breakdowns are my go-to for shorts. Multi-day breakout and any flags or sideways or triangle consolidation breaks are my go-to longs. Sometimes oversold bounces. HBLZ is a good one now.

Today I made some great trades scalping BABA in the A.M. and some good reads on IWM but I gave gains back overtrading IWM. My winrate is actually increasing on IWM but I need to not push my luck as it gets farther into the day because it literally always get super choppy in mid afternoon. My plan going forward and it worked today is to trade regular stocks from 9:30am to 9:45ish then look at IWM and index ETFs. I have been doing XHB and NAIL a lot too. My selectivity wasn't awful today but wasn't quite good enough possibly because I wasn't rested. I have overtraded the most when I'm the most tired. Trade management was good, risk management was ok. My thinking going forward is to keep multi-day option trades on at all times like USO or natural gas or GLD GDX so I can get a cushion on gains so I'm not forcing trades during regular session. I like to look at my IWM charts at the end of the day. Almost always the first direction it breaksout to in the first 15 minutes is the fakeout then the real moves are the opposite direction. Today it popped out of that range and looked bullish then spike topped again and crashed. So choppy until even after 10:30am. I need to work on selectivity, fine tuning risk management with entries.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Friday, October 21, 2022

IWM Patterns

I traded well today and had kind of a normal green day. IWM was easy to read with support and trend lines. It held a major support I drew up 3 times. I looked over a couple weeks of the IWM chart from 9:30 to 9:40 or 9:45 and during this time way more than half the time whatever direction it trends right at 9:40 or 9:45ish it will reverse and that will be the days trend direction. Defintely and repeated pattern here. It can also be very very choppy the first 10 minutes of trading. I decided to just miss the open and didn't start until around 10 today. I plan to just not trade IWM at open going forward to avoid likely bad reads. I am learning to just avoid it when it is choppy. It likes to slow down in the afternoon and almost always has an hour or so of tight range fakeout hell. Sometimes the ranges are tradable but I haven't mastered that yet. It almost always lately has an explosion move the last 30 minutes to close. It will just move fast and straight. When the candles get long and the algo dance isn't going on I can scalp good gains with size.

I'm going to start journaling win rates on different setups it does. I will call one power momo because it just speeds up and goes fast and straight for minutes at a time. This gives the long candles. I'm focusing on setups with the highest overall dollar profit average per trade to get some good days going. Some of the setups I've been taking have high win rate but not high dollar amount. So I think that is why I'm spinning my wheels some weeks. High short interest longs is one of the setups and I think it may be coming back if indexes hold support. Best profit setup is IWM options multi-day. Not a high sample though. Puts on stock bear flags, USO options multi-day, BABA intraday or overnight, and short intra-day overbought are the top setups profit wise. I have been focusing on IWM intraday and 52 week breakdowns because its safe with market direction indecision with some of them but I haven't gotten big size on them. So many days I am just amazed at how well IWM trades with technicals. I always figured with the HFT and computers it was hard to trade. In some ways it is because of how it jumps up and down like Pac-Man eating up orders but it respects the lines. I guess that's the way the programs are setup. Downtrend break on gold and miners.

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Two Day Evaluation

Looked at my overall win rate on IWM intraday and decided to back off trading it today. It hasn't been working this week. I have been trying to force trades to get a big green day. I decided to focus on intraday overbought for shorts because it's a high winrate and I can get good entries and that worked for me though I didn't have ideal size on it. I am having a hard time balancing size with risk and the ability to get a good sized gain. It's either too much risk or not enough risk so not a big gain. I am not sure my expectations on what I can do with an account my size are super realistic. I need perfect entries to put on the kind of size I want. All I need to do in my swing account is trade USO options and hold for 1 to 2 days and I have a 70% win rate but I have been doing stock options too and those aren't working out right now. I am going to regroup that account and keep going daytrading but I'm thinking for my stress level it is best to work a part-time job so I can do what I need to do slowly on the daytrading account. I usually only see a couple choice setups all day on the stocks I trade and it's not enough to have to rely on those for big gainers. Risk management was back today until later in the day I forced some size on scalps. I think I need a break to clear my mind.