Oil, Nat Gas, THLD

I had a stop order out there to cover my THLD short. I assume it triggered as Tradeking is totally shut down currently because of some malfunction in a data center. Tradeking recently acquired MB Trading and they are merging everything to tradeking. If the order filled I will have a realized small profit on THLD.

There is a long setup on crude oil after this spike day. A wide ranging day like today up 10% should get some follow through. I'm not longing it until it breaks out again though. Looks real promising. Conversely natural gas is one of the weirdest commodities. It has been perfectly immune to everything going on the past week. It's still range-bound and just hovering around support. I put a buy stop order to short UNG with DGAZ the other day. It is pennies away from triggering. The chart says short still.

The major indices are doing a bullish engulf off the lows. The rebound is very strong and could continue for awhile.

Wild Monday Results

I sold YANG and SMN. My latest trade results are

YANG  28%
SMN    16%
THLD  still short up 6% right now

Shanghai basically crashed in the Chinese trading session so by early Monday morning my YANG was up over 20%. I was up about 7% at the end of Friday. While most investors and amateur traders were panicking over their long positions held over the weekend I was only worried about making sure I got a great exit on my short ETF's.

Seeing how volatile the US futures were pre-market and how Asia had traded I was about sure we would hit Circuit Breakers  on the exchanges. SPY was very very jiggy in premarket around support. The bid and ask were flipping and going nutz. So fast. I remember clearly trading back in 2008 and how just a 7% drop on the whole market triggers a stop on the exchange for 15 minutes. I really hate it and it just causes more fear and chaos going against its supposed purpose. I mean look at how stupid they have been in China the past month with theirs.

I traded both of these ETF's in my Fidelity account. I have never had any trouble with fills with them in the short time I've been using them. I also have a Tradeking account. Fidelity was horrible Monday morning with both my orders. They never showed up as processing or anything. They disappeared for atleast 15 to 20 minutes! I couldn't even get a second order in because there was a conflict with the ghost orders I had just placed. So I could do nothing but watch as everything rallied after the open!

 I actually had to pick up the phone and call Fidelity to try to liquidate these positions. After being on hold for 5 minutes all of a sudden the orders finally showed up on their site!! For their sake I really hope it had something to do with the circuit breakers stoppage that triggered after the open. I will just stick with Tradeking for trading for now while the VIX is so high.

Almost to Easy

I nailed those setups. I filled on SMN the ultrashort materials ETF and am long and green up 5% at the close. I also bought YANG and am up 7%. I want to hold these for a another day to two if the price action goes perfectly up. If they go 1% against me I'm just going to sell it all. If there is a big gap up on Monday I will probably sell half the shares. I like trading volatility and am glad it is back for now.

Short Setups

SMN is breaking out off of a triangular consolidation. I have a buy stop order out to buy the breakout. I also have a buy order for YANG the 3 x china short ETF. It's off of a flag too. AMZN looks like a good short on breakdown as well. It's in a tight trading range. Natural gas is forming a triangle consolidation now. Very good setup coming up whichever way It breaks out.

Bonds, Dollar and PLNT

ADHD and GRBK from the previous post did exactly as I expected and fell the next day. That indicator is one of the best. Treasury Bonds TLT may test the highs as the current market environment doesn't seem concerned about a rate increase from the FED. They very well may not raise rates. The market reaction to the decision will be important. I think it's to early to commit to a long-term position shorting TLT until there is a setup around TLT resistance or a market reaction to the news. The dollar looks very weak here technically too. They'll get their inflation if that is what the FED is looking for. They will get it sooner or later. Hopefully, they will not let it get out of control when it comes.

I'm still holding a very long-term investment in PLNT Planet Fitness. They charge $10 to $20 a month for a membership while the national average is close to $40. Even in a recession they will have customers. They could even take market share. The stock is down to $16 now. I don't care. Below $12 it is a steal.

I'm still holding THLD short as well. This one is looking good now as it is breaking down finally. I shorted at 4.26 roughly and it is 4.03 now.

Two Short Setups

These two are red candles above the upper Bollinger band. ADHD is my favorite. It doesn't have that much volume. So I don't know if there are shares out there. Classic doji above upper bollie. Doji candles are reversal candles. A shooting star is too. Those are the best to see above the upper bollie. Shooting stars are the best. The second GRBK is higher volume. Same chart. They need to break below the previous days close at the least first. Sprint S is actually looking good for a short scalp too.

 

 

 

Oil Breakdown Again

Oil is testing long-term support from the previous low in March. It looks like right now it could take it out and dive even more. There should be a lot of room for shorting if it does breakdown that support. It would be a major breakdown. Today it failed miserably on the bullish engulf formation it was trying. It's a bearish engulf now. An engulf is when the days candle is just as long as the previous days but is opposite positive or negative day. Green or red rather. I drew up support and the engulfs.

Breakdown level is clear in March below. All of this came from that tight trading range breakdown from April to July. Straight out of a textbook. Jack Schwagers for sure.

I had a lot of success shorting the technical breakdown on oil with CHK and SCO. CHK is lagging a little again and appears to be bear flagging again. I might trade these two again. On another note, oil at 20 or 30s is a gift for a long term investment. We know from history that oil only appreciates over the long-term. There will always be significant dollar inflation especially with our current debt levels.

Lomg-Term US T-Bonds TLT Technicals

Long-term US bonds or ticker TLT is a spike top as I pointed out awhile ago on StockPursuit.com. A spike top is a strong bearish reversal signal. Clearly you can see the downtrend TLT has been in since the top with this chart. The red lines encompass the channel it's in. It's testing resistance here. It is actually a little above the trend line. We will have to see how it does the next few days. I'm still bearish on TLT.  Hopefully it runs up some more to give a good shorting opportunity with TBT.

Short Setup and Trades Journal

I covered all of my CHK short after that big crash day off the breakdown. It was looking like it was going to go red on the day then in about 2 minutes shot all the way to 7.20. It held the 7 area well. I immediately covered from a 8.30 short entry. I made about 12% on CHK. I also sold the short oil ETF SCO in the morning for a 4% gain.  SNMX below is up around the upper Bollinger band and is up a significant percentage in a short time. It was a good short today and could continue tomorrow.

Trades Journal

I'd like to find a good desktop recording software so I can run through charts and talk about them on the screen at the same time. I looked around not long ago and couldn't find one that didn't look like a pure virus download.  I knew of one a long time ago but forgot the name. Anyway, I had a lot of positions on lately. Some of them did what I expected the execution was just off. Briefly, ANTH -6%, LOCK -7%, QID -2%, DGAZ -9%,OHRP -6%. Still holding that THLD short.

Before that flurry I was up for the year and had more winners than losers. Those put me down a little. I knew they were going to all end up swing trades so I went a little undersized which helped. Based on my previous performance I knew the losers wouldn't continue and the gift that the oil breakdown gave just pushed me up some. I just put on oil short with SCO and CHK short. I'm up on SCO here and up very nicely on CHK short. I shorted CHK at $8.31 and it's at $7.03 now. I longed SCO at 92.84 and it's 95 now.

CHK Bear Flag

More lows look imminent off of this bear flag.

Chevron CVX Short

These major integrated oils are really getting dumped. There was strong selling volume on this new 52 week low for Chevron CVX. I expect more lows to continue so this is a good short setup on a new low below 88.01.